Over the past few years, the property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry valuation narrative has been consistent. Rising premium rates supported carrier revenue, underwriting results improved, higher interest rates increased investment income and brokers benefited from commission growth.
Unfortunately, this well-connected narrative is becoming less dependable. Pricing conditions have been diverging substantially by coverage, geography and risk quality. At the same time, investors have become more selective about the source and sustainability of reported earnings.
As a result, the next phase of the P&C cycle may be characterized less by industrywide movements and more by widening valuation differences among carriers, brokers and specialty insurance businesses.
The divergence is already visible in public-market data. As of June 30, publicly traded insurance brokers generated a median valuation of 11.9 times next-12-month earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Specialty P&C insurers traded at a median 14.5 times forward earnings and 2.5 times book value, while standard P&C insurers traded at 10.9 times forward earnings and 1.8 times book value.
These multiples are not directly interchangeable. Brokers are valued using EBITDA and revenue multiples because they produce fee and commission income without retaining significant underwriting risk. Carriers are more commonly evaluated using earnings and book-value multiples because they put capital at risk and remain responsible for future claims.
Thus, there is no single P&C valuation multiple. A company’s business mix, risks it retains and quality of its earnings increasingly determine how investors value it.
A Divided Pricing Market Creates a Divided Valuation Story
The insurance market is no longer moving in one direction, creating different valuation challenges across the industry. Global commercial insurance rates declined by 6% during Q2 2026, while property rates fell 12% and cyber declined 4%. Casualty was the only major product category to record a global increase, rising 2% overall and 7% in the U.S.
Property carriers must determine whether current underwriting margins can be sustained as competition grows and pricing declines. Casualty carriers face questions about claim severity, litigation trends and reserve adequacy.
Brokers occupy another position. Falling rates can slow commission growth even when client retention remains strong. Conversely, continued casualty rate increases may support near-term commission revenue while creating affordability and coverage challenges for clients.
The same market conditions therefore affect carrier and broker earnings differently. Valuation analysis must distinguish between pricing-driven growth, exposure growth, net new business and improvements in operating performance.
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